Way, Way, Way Off

  • $100 to win $115 on Miami knocking off the Spurs in San Antonio
  • $105 to win $100 on Boston giving 9.5 at home against Golden State
  • $105 to win $100 on the L.A. Lakers giving 12 at home against Charlotte

Nope, nope, and nope.

On top of this, the three temptations I passed on (New York giving 12, Dallas giving 8.5, and Minnesota getting 9) all would have lost as well.

One way to see this is that I correctly stayed away.

Another is that if I hadn’t, I would have gone 0-6 on Friday night.

There’s only a 1 in 64 chance of calling six consecutive 50/50 propositions wrong.

Unless you’re betting like I do.

I’m 3-8 now, and have lost nearly two-thirds of a hypothetical $1000 stake.

Once again, I picked two stalled-out, low-margin blowouts (Golden State and Charlotte never really challenged Boston and L.A., respectively, and so the home teams responded with a low-wattage efforts. Golden State even outrebounded Boston, something I didn’t think was possible).

And this time, I managed to miss the blowout of the night in a game I actually bet. I wouldn’t have wagered had I known Tony Parker would make a special guest appearance; even so, eight Spurs put up between 11 and 20 points, six buried three point shots, and the Heat seemed to have no answer for someone named Matt Bonner, who strafed them for six treys in seven attempts.

Maybe it’s a gift.

Thus far, the best strategy is fading what I think will happen. I’m seriously considering it.

Wouldn’t you?

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