Commitment!

Under 2:30’s flat grey sky, I plead Vegas, caffeine, and road teams afire.

Wednesday’s early lines are out, and I’m putting hypothetical money down:

  • $165 to win $150 on the Nuggets visiting Atlanta in a pick ’em.
  • $165 to win $150 on Oklahoma City getting 6.5 in Miami.

Because the Hawks lack depth, the Nuggets will have a day’s rest, Atlanta won’t, and Denver’s fathomless horde of perimeter players should overrun Teague and Hinrich.

Because Miami lacks depth, Oklahoma City is too young and aspirational to pack it in early a la San Antonio, and Ibaka and Perkins should hurt the Heat inside.

I suspect both games will be close; the former because the Nuggets can’t keep hitting everything from everywhere, and the latter because the Thunder won’t let Miami get away. So I’m wagering on Karl over Drew, and the guts of OKC over Miami’s glamour.

On Thursday, perhaps I’ll know I was right the first time, and should have stayed away from the vicissitudes of Very Good versus Even Better. But oh, the points, the points…

We’ll see.

Go Thunder. Go Nuggets.

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