Rainy Day Sunshine

  • Oklahoma City beats Charlotte by 17 and covers.
  • Denver loses in the last moments at Orlando and covers.
  • Minnesota leads the Lakers by one with two minutes to go, collapses, and covers.

A 3-0 night, and with it, a parade of shiny numbers.

My hypothetical stake is now up 32.5%. A marvelous return for a month, provided one overlooks the appalling level of risk (and no, you shouldn’t), which has mostly shuttled between the gut-churning prospects of losing half my stake and all of it.

And from The Department of Misleading Snapshots, this item: over the past nine days, I’ve taken $345 and turned it into $1325. Without any leverage. Which means I’ve zipped past the arbitrageurs on my way to hobnobbing with that small, inexplicable, yet statistically inevitable enclave of commodities traders who keep winding up on the right side of their deals, at the expense of thousands who don’t.

I’m 13-10 across all my picks, 10-2 in my last five wagering sessions, 9-1 overall when backing the underdog and taking the points. I’m wagering tolerably by any measure, and by a few, I’m eligible to print up clean, white business cards bearing only my name and a one-word title: soothsayer.

A sooth who’s won six in a row.

I know, I know–dumb title, small numbers.

Yes.

But this is for fun, and life is relative; the prospect of leaving a self-dug hole is fun.

Besides, I continue to be excited about the trends; had I taken the points and bet on the underdog in the 19 games chosen thus far, I’d have gone 16-3 and quadrupled my starting stake.

Even the caveat is encouraging: the games I’ve been tempted by recently but passed on would have cost me dearly. I think I would have gone something like 1-9 in the past five wagering sessions had I jumped on them, which would have turned my 10-2 run into a series of stake-shrinking coinflips. So I wouldn’t call taking the points a system by any stretch. I’ll only say this general approach (coupled with instincts) has been paying off.

For about a week. Which means I might be tiptoeing through a minefield, and there’s still a lot to learn.

Although it doesn’t look like I’ll be learning much on a wind-whipped, drenched and cold Saturday night. None of the six NBA games tempt, thanks to deterring lines. I can’t find my way into the Clippers giving 13 at home to Cleveland (awful and exhansted meets mediocre and injured), the travelling Nuggets getting 8 from Miami (the cancelling possibilities range from a Heat blowout to a Denver win), the weary Celtics visiting New Orleans (nearly a pick ’em, and no outcome would surprise), and the Grizzlies, Spurs and Blazers all hosting opponents while conceding enough points to make me throw up my hands and walk away.

So with no hypothetical money down, let’s say it’s Cleveland, Miami, New Orleans, Indiana, Charlotte and Philly.

Two favorites and four underdogs. But really, I’m waiting for the next set of lines.

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