On day four thousand of The Drenching of Berkeley, a modest matinee wager:
- $110 to win $100 on Phoenix on the road getting 1.5 from the Clippers.
Because the Suns are chasing a playoff spot, Frye and Nash are back in the rotation, and the Lakers and a loss await two days hence. I expect a close game and a show from Blake Griffin, but I’m wagering on experience over youth, and the hope that Eric Gordon won’t shoot the Suns out of the building.
Temptations passed include Oklahoma City conceding a whopping 13.5 to visiting Toronto, and Houston at home giving 7 to Utah. The Thunder should rout the horrid invaders from the North, but the Raptors have scoring threats in Bargnani and DeRozan, and Oklahoma City is still figuring out what its offense is doing with Perkins on the floor. It’s a cautionary line, as is the spread in the Rockets-Jazz conflagration, which nearly qualifies as a playoff game, given the records of the two teams. It’s also an exercise in fallacies of composition: Houston has gone 10-3 of late to rise to two games over .500, while Utah has gone 9-20 since a 27-13 start to fall within reach of the Rockets. I think Houston’s defense will carry the day, but 7 is the right line, so I’m staying away.