I’ll Take a Dozen

  • Denver 114 Washington 94

The Nuggets cover. I’ve won 12 straight. And yes, it wobbles the mind. It’s quite a change from the 3-8 start, the one that restricted the size of the wagers for the bulk of this blog.

But now I’m in pursuit of exponential returns with next to no capital at risk. The first of my doubling campaigns now stands at 2-0 and $200 from a $50 start. I need three more successful consecutive wagers to achieve a $1600 return, and while that’s exciting, it’s odd to think that getting 40% of the way there yields only 12.5% of the payout. But that’s the nature of exponential curves.

And money being fungible, I could take the proceeds from the first win of my second doubling campaign (another $50) and add it to the third wager of Campaign Number One, so that I’ll have $250 riding on the next pick.

At the moment, it looks like I’ll have at least tonight to mull that option, because I can’t find a Saturday line I want to put hypothetical dollars on. Only Chicago on the road giving 5.5 to Milwaukee momentarily attracts, primarily because the Bulls are an elite defensive team set to square off against a dysfunctional Bucks offense. But I’m hesitant to go with what looks cut and dried, because both teams played last night and flew to Milwaukee late, both need the game, and Saturday’s crowd may charge the Bucks. I Fear the Deer, and I’m staying away.

Tomorrow’s candidates seem to be Houston on the road getting 8.5 from Miami, and Golden State at home giving 10.5 to East’s Worst Road Show, the Washington Bullets.

The Heat are chasing sagging Boston for second in the East, but the Rockets need a win even more; the visitors will be amply rested and coming in on a roll, thanks to the return of Luis Scola and a recently refurbished rotation whose sum is greater than its parts. Not ready to commit, but I’m staring long and hard at the Rockets and all those points.

As for Golden State, the Warriors don’t defend. That’s the only worry I can see with the line against the Bullets, but one might be enough; because of it, there’s an outside possibility that the visitors could win a road game.

Until the next wager…


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