No, Really…I’m Fine

  • Golden State 114 Washington 104

My winning streak ends at a dozen. I said I couldn’t stay away.

Washington’s terrible road record and auditioning-for-next-year rotation were too much to resist. My one fear–Golden State’s commitment to never playing defense–brought the wager down to late, irrelevant  free throws by the Bullets, and I didn’t cover by half a point.

That’s not sour grapes; it simply means I didn’t spot the game whose line was out of whack this time. A good line turns any game into a random proposition, and that’s what I walked into by giving 10.5 points on Sunday. The oddsmakers may focus on finding the number that splits the aggregate wagers evenly, but the combination of their educated guesses and the adjustments made in response to the public reaction slides the lines into the Stay Away, It’s Random category with impressive frequency. When I’ve misread and wagered on these coinflips half a dozen times, I’ve experienced a coinflipper’s level of success.

I’m also okay financially with the loss, having bet what I could afford to lose. But what it means is that my NBA wagering season is down to two doubling campaigns. I’ve already won my first bet (jumping from $50 to $100) in Campaign Number Two, and so my next wager will be for $100.

When it happens; five of the six lines are already up for tomorrow’s slate, and none entice. I’ll keep an eye out for both the line on the Washington-Utah game and the health of Devin Harris. I have only two more chances this season, so if that scenario looks suspect, I’ll wait.


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