Red Flags

Matchups, health, rest, schedule and venue.

Those are the five factors I set against the lines when shopping for a wager. Despite the gaggle of games and a full spectrum of spreads, a snag in at least one of these disqualifies every contest this evening.

Milwaukee on the road shouldn’t be giving 4.5 to anyone, except Toronto’s spread-destroying Andrea Bargnani may not play.

The Knicks giving 8.5 looks attractive at against the travelling Nyets, but only if Deron Williams doesn’t make a special guest appearance, and that won’t be known until game time.

The luster of a rested and rising Denver team at home dulls when they’re conceding 12 to a suddenly healthy, huge and physical Sacramento squad that’s capable of anything from losing by 40 to winning by 10 against the Nuggets.

Only Dallas giving 5.5 to the Clippers in L.A. raises an eyebrow, but not for long; though the Mavs habitually fail to cover and Eric Gordon is back, a 6-point win by an unquestionably superior team wouldn’t surprise any more than the Blakers grabbing a win.

Tonight’s good lines, bad lines hiding in plain sight and gametime question marks are too much for me, so I’m sitting out Wednesday. And likely Thursday as well, which features only two marquee matchups and what I suspect will be indecipherable spreads.

Happily, though, my losing streak has ended at one; both Houston and Golden State covered easily yesterday, so my two remaining doubling campaigns now stand at 1-0 and $100 and 2-0 and $200, respectively. I’m still aspiring for the big payoff of 5 in a row with these strings, but it hasn’t escaped my attention that I’ve gone 5-1 thus far in my three doubling campaigns, while netting only $180 for my efforts. Had I simply continued betting $100 at a time, I would have added $390 to my stake with that record, and my hypothetical total would now stand at double my original $1000 investment.

Ah well. With a handful of games left in the regular season, I only need three more suspect lines to end with a bang. We’ll see.


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