On the Road Again

On day four thousand of The Drenching of Berkeley, a modest matinee wager:

  • $110 to win $100 on Phoenix on the road getting 1.5 from the Clippers.

Because the Suns are chasing a playoff spot, Frye and Nash are back in the rotation, and the Lakers and a loss await two days hence. I expect a close game and a show from Blake Griffin, but I’m wagering on experience over youth, and the hope that Eric Gordon won’t shoot the Suns out of the building.

Temptations passed include Oklahoma City conceding a whopping 13.5 to visiting Toronto, and Houston at home giving 7 to Utah. The Thunder should rout the horrid invaders from the North, but the Raptors have scoring threats in Bargnani and DeRozan, and Oklahoma City is still figuring out what its offense is doing with Perkins on the floor. It’s a cautionary line, as is the spread in the Rockets-Jazz conflagration, which nearly qualifies as a playoff game, given the records of the two teams. It’s also an exercise in fallacies of composition: Houston has gone 10-3 of late to rise to two games over .500, while Utah has gone 9-20 since a 27-13 start to fall within reach of the Rockets. I think Houston’s defense will carry the day, but 7 is the right line, so I’m staying away.

Go Suns.


Once More into the Breach

Wager Number Six is $110 to win $100 on Boston, giving 4.5 at Utah tonight.

I’m not drawn to the storytelling aspect of this game (Boston needing to regroup after the franchise traded a popular player, Kendrick Perkins). I’m more interested in the fact that Utah downgraded at both point guard and coach in the past two weeks, and has gone 5-15 of late because teams have figured out the weaknesses of the Jazz front line, and have managed to cut off the attack at the head as a result. Rondo should outclass Devin Harris, and Utah doesn’t defend well in the post anymore.┬áIt’s a very good team against a squad that looks like it’s in the midst of a playoffs-killing tailspin. The Celts should win by at least five.

Or so it says here.

The temptations passed at lunchtime today included Phoenix giving 2.5 on the road in New Jersey, and Atlanta getting 6 on the road in Denver. The Suns might win, but then again, Steve Nash can’t guard Deron Williams, and this is Williams’ first home game with his new team. And Atlanta’s front court should control Denver’s. The problem here is Atlanta’s inconsistency, which tends to make them a cypher on the road.

Go Celtics.